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Socio-Economic Development of Belarus in January-October 2004
Economic performance of Belarus in January-October 2004 is the evidence of
sustainable development of the national economy and adequacy of the chosen
socio-economic model.
In comparison with January-October 2003:
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GDP grew 11.1 percent, being one of the highest among Commonwealth of Independent States
(CIS) countries;
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industrial production rose 16.1 percent (according to the CIS Statistical
Committee, Belarus outstripped all CIS countries except Tajikistan);
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agricultural production increased by 11.6 percent;
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consumer goods production rose 12.5 percent;
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volume of investment in fixed capital grew 18.2 percent;
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inflation made up 10.3 percent; and for the first time since 1991 consumer prices decreased by 0.2 percent in August 2004 compared to July 2004;
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real income of the population in January-September 2004 grew 12.8 percent, with the projections being 108-109
percent;
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unemployment as of the end of October 2004 decreased to 2.1 percent from the level of 3.1 percent of economically active population in 2003;
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National Bank of Belarus increased its gold and foreign currency reserves
(national definition) by 13 percent to 1 billion US$ over the period January-October 2004;
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foreign state debt of Belarus, not including short-term credits, decreased by 16.4
percent, including 1 percent in September, to 616 million US$ as of October 1.
In January-September 2004 in comparison with the same period of 2003:
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foreign trade in goods and services grew 32.6 percent, with both exports and imports grow at almost equal
pace;
- growth rate of the exports of goods was 0.2 percent higher than that of imports of
goods;
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positive trade balance in the trade of goods with the countries outside CIS grew 533.8 million US$ to reach 1,476 million
US$.
Belarusian Parliament approved budget for 2005 with the deficit of only 1.5 percent of GDP.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its Belarusian GDP growth forecast this year up to 6.4 percent from the 4.8 percent predicted in
April. IMF also upgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2005, to 5.5 percent from 3.5
percent. IMF revised its consumer price growth forecast down to 19.5 percent from 22.7
percent.
A number of socio-economic indicators place Belarus favorably among CIS countries and countries with economies in
transition.
According to UNCTAD Trade and Development Reports 2002, 2003 and 2004, Belarus succeeded in
achieving, between 1997 and 2003, annual export growth of 9.1 percent, whereas this index is 7.7 percent in the countries with economies in
transition, 4.1 percent in developed countries, and 5.3 percent in the world.
According to UNCTAD World Investment Report 2004, by Inward Foreign Direct Investment Potential Index Belarus ranks 56th in the
world, up 22 points compared to 1994-1996, and leaves behind all CIS countries except
Russia, which is 33rd. To compare with, Ukraine is 94th, Kazakhstan is 78th, Bulgaria is 64th, Romania is 83rd.
According to the WTO World Trade Statistics 2003, by the volume of exports of goods Belarus is 9th among 22 countries of Central and Eastern Europe and Central
Asia, the share of Belarusian exports being 2.5 percent.
According to World Bank data (report “Global Development Finance - 2004”), Belarus’ total external debt as percentage of gross national income is 7
percent, which is the lowest level for developing countries and countries with economies in
transition.
According to the information, made public by the UNDP Office at the conference “Achieving First Millennium Goals” held in Minsk on November 2, 2004, there is no absolute poverty in the Republic of Belarus: in 2003, only 1 percent of the nation’s entire population had an income that was less than 2 US$ per
day.
Belarus leads CIS countries in accommodation commissioned per one resident: in 2003, each resident had 22.3 square meters of total dwelling area as compared to 22 square meters in the Ukraine and 20 square meters in
Russia.
The Republic of Belarus leads all CIS countries in the rate of growth of monthly salaries and ranks third in their level among the Commonwealth countries following just Russia and
Kazakhstan.
According to the UNICEF (Report “The State of the World’s Children 2004”), Belarus occupies a well-deserved place in the world in protecting and strengthening children’s
health. In particular, as per the integrated under-5 mortality rate (the coefficient covers such indices as
nutrition, immunization, school education and medical services, and security of the child’s
environment) Belarus, along with Ukraine, ranks 125th among 193 countries of the
world, ahead of Russia, Latvia and Romania (rank 121st), Georgia (101st), Moldova (96th), Armenia (94th), Kyrgyzstan (71st), Tajikistan (62nd), Kazakhstan (51st), Turkmenistan (49th) and Azerbaijan (64th).
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